How long will it niña last

Sub-surface temperature anomalies are currently below average in the eastern Pacific, and they have supported the recent cooling seen at the surface. During July, the surface wind anomalies were easterly across much of the near-equatorial Pacific, though they are still relatively weak. Similarly, the upper-level westerlies strengthened during July and became more coherent.

These circulation anomalies have also supported the recent cooling of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures. The pattern of recent precipitation anomalies in the Pacific region is largely consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions. By late August, however, the Southern Oscillation Index has returned to the neutral range, though still on the high side of neutral. Using the recent observations during July and August as the starting point for their climate models, the WMO Global Producing Centres of Long-Range Forecasts have produced global-scale forecasts for the coming months.

The range of possible central-eastern Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies predicted for September-November span the values of At the regional level, seasonal outlooks need to assess the relative effects of both the ENSO state and other locally relevant climate drivers. Research conducted over recent decades has shed considerable light on the important role played by interactions between the atmosphere and ocean in the tropical belt of the Pacific Ocean in altering global weather and climate patterns.

These temperature changes are strongly linked to major climate fluctuations around the globe and, once initiated such events can last for 12 months or more. Some episodes may persist for as long as two years.

Scientists from NOAA and other agencies use a variety of tools and techniques to monitor and forecast changes in the Pacific Ocean and the impact of those changes on global weather patterns. Better predictions of the potential for extreme climate episodes like floods and droughts could save the United States billions of dollars in damage costs.

Predicting the onset of a warm or cold phase is critical in helping water, energy and transportation managers, and farmers plan for, avoid or mitigate potential losses. Advances in improved climate predictions will also result in significantly enhanced economic opportunities, particularly for the national agriculture, fishing, forestry and energy sectors, as well as social benefits.

The jury is still out on this. Will they be more intense? These are the main research questions facing the science community today. Research will help us separate the natural climate variability from any trends due to man's activities. We cannot figure out the "fingerprint" of global warming if we cannot sort out what the natural variability does.

We also need to look at the link between decadal changes in natural variability and global warming. Rather, these climate extremes affect the position and intensity of the jet streams, which in turn affect the intensity and track of storms. According to this research, the chances for the continental U. The Walker circulation features trade winds blowing from east to west across the tropical Pacific.

This piles up warm water to the western side of the ocean basin, creating a warm pool around the Indonesian seas and off northern Australia. At the same time cold water is upwelled in the east, making the eastern Pacific cool. Surface winds converge in the western Pacific and create lots of convection and rain. As a consequence, the warm water that is piled up in the west by the winds spreads to the east, thus warming the central and eastern Pacific, and moving the centre of convection eastward.

With less warm water around Australia and the convective activity away from the western Pacific, there are more chances for dry weather for Australia. The spring season was the wettest spring in Australia since the s. It accentuated the chances of having extreme flooding in northeast Australia. It is also often the case that ENSO can combine with other climate phenomena to amplify the impact over Australia.